This weekend we have a 13-fight card then extended 3-week break. I am excited to have UFC back and that I am prepared to win some money on Saturday. The card will take place in Lincoln, Nebraska and there are no fighters making their UFC introduction so it’s always nice once you are already familiar with all the fighters on the card. Since this is a Fight Night card, the DraftKings contests aren’t the best, but there’s still a great deal of cash to be won. I’ll personally be chasing the big $15k top prize at the $8 GPP in addition to the $5 & $10 Qualifiers. Most of my investment will be in money games, largely H2Hs, but I will be taking multiple shots at these big prizes. Listed below are a Couple of plays I enjoy this week in Addition to my fade of this week:
Money Game play of this week — Stack (James Vick $8,600 AND Justin Gaethje $7,600)
This is the way I’ll be starting my cash lineup. I will put in Vick and Gaethje then figure the rest out from there. Any fight Gaethje is in is full of action and his three UFC fights have been Fight Of The Year type conflicts. Those kinds of fights are great for DraftKings. Especially cash games because we can lock at a win and get all the points at the very best fight on the card. Normally 4 wins will find the job done in cash games and we will get over 100 points with this fight. So, with that win locked in, we just need to find 3 others we feel great about.
GPP drama of the week — Bryan Barberena ($9,500)
It is challenging to want to pay $9.5k to get a guy like Barberena if you can just pay an additional $200 to get a -1000 favorite in Anders. However, I think that’s what most folks will do and that’s what makes Barberena a good GPP play. I think we will get him in a marginally lower ownership as a consequence of his large salary, and he has an excellent shot at getting a 1st round win. If he can get a 1st round KO then he will have 100 points so he’ll pay off that large salary. If you think Ellenberger is completely faded, I think you should find some Barberena on your lineups. His ITD line is -170 and Ellenberger looks like he’s a shell of his older self. I believe Barberena does pick up a finish inside this struggle so I will throw him some GPPs and expect he is under owned.
Underdog play of the week — Andre Fili ($7,500)
This is just the effortless value play of this week. Presently, Fili is your gambling popular at -115 over Michael Johnson at +105. However, MJ is $8.7k on DraftKings and Fili is only $7.5k. I really like taking that worth when it’s available so I think he is in play in all formats. He’ll be popular in tournaments with all the value we’re getting on himbut I am willing to eat that chalk and that I don’t want to get burnt by completely fading that worth. I really do think this is the toughest struggle on the card to phone, but when Fili keeps with his wrestling I presume he will have a good chance at winning this fight. If the fight remains standing for 15-minutes, I’d prefer MJ although not by a good deal. At $7.5k we do not need a massive score from Fili so any win will probably do just fine. I am not going to pass on this value and I think he’s the easy underdog of the week on DK.
Fade of the week — Drew Dober ($8,900)
This may just be my own personal bias but I am not going to possess Drew Dober in any of my main ~20 GPP lineups. Nor will I have him in my cash lineup. Dober has only proceeded for takedowns in 1 of his UFC fights so he is mainly just seeking to attack. I believe this is going to be a striking battle as well and I think it will be closer than the chances indicate. At $8.9k I believe we will need a complete from him to end up on the winning GPP lineup and I really don’t see that happening. If you do believe Dober can get a KO, then you ought to be enjoying him. I will just be paying up elsewhere because I’m not sure he can get that complete and that I wouldn’t be amazed if he lost the fight. I will say I never look to use Dober at DraftKings, therefore I could get burned again but I am going to stick with my Dober evaporate and he’ll be my fade of this week to get UFC Lincoln.
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