From Vance Hanson, TwinSpires.com
After last year we examined the vulnerability of five of racing’s marquee stars going to the Breeders’ Cup at Santa Anita, it was hard to imagine all would fulfill defeat, but that’s what occurred as favorites wound up taking it on the chin throughout the weekend.
Far from it being our goal of employing some kind of jinx, we will do the exercise for next weekend’s fixture at Del Mar by standing from more likely to less likely the odds of the most noteworthy of Thoroughbreds of never making it in the winner’s circle.
Arrogate (Classic)
Six months into the season it was widely thought he would be an odds-on favorite in this race. Two summertime losses at Del Mar afterwards, it is more probable than not that North America’s all-time top money winner likely won’t even function as post-time favorite.
While coach Bob Baffert has blamed mostly himself for Arrogate’s form reversals in the San Diego H. (G2) and Pacific Classic (G1), the sneaking suspicion is that this may not be the exact same colt as we watched 9-12 months ago, the sort we’d likely have to see again in order to beat a field of the depth and quality.
Gun Runner (Classic)
Has usurped Arrogate, who beat him soundly in prior meetings, in hot polls of recent months following a string of amazing efforts in the Stephen Foster H. (G1), Whitney (G1), and Woodward (G1).
While worthy of favoritism in the weekend’s main attraction, he faces a far sterner job here and has yet to win over 1??1/4 kilometers in three attempts.
Lady Eli (Filly & Mare Turf)
Slightly further down the list this past year, the beloved mare was run down by Queen’s Trust with a nose, a major upset in retrospect given how that re-opposing rival has subsequently failed to flatter her own form.
Meanwhile, the Lady Eli enters this re-match with an additional two starts under her belt compared to last season, and fresher. A distance decrease from 10 furlongs to eight is just another element in her favor.
Bolt d’Oro (Juvenile)
The strength of his success in last month’s FrontRunner (G1) characters to make him one of the most powerful favorites in this race for a while. Simultaneous regression by him and organic progress by another is definitely a chance, but it is completely understandable while he will be one on many bettors’ multi-race exotics plans.
Lady Aurelia (Turf Sprint)
Despite a last-out blow off by a nose at the Nunthorpe (G1), her tour de force in the King’s Stand (G1) against elderly males at Royal Ascot is still one of the memorable performances of the season anywhere on the planet.
Unless hindered by a highly unfavorable post, the three-year-old filly seems set to put her prowess on full screen over a trip she absolutely loves.
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