This weekend, we have a 13-fight card in Milwaukee which will be the last UFC on FOX card on account of this brand new ESPN deal. We’re back to getting smaller prize pools with this event but there is still good money to be won. The main GPP is a $10 entry with $15,000 to 1st place. Those huge GPPs with a nice top prize are always my favourite competitions to chase so I’ll be shooting some shots in that. Aside from that, I’ll stick to my 3-entry maximum & single entry GPPs. I’ll also be picking up H2Hs through the week and that I will get a fantastic quantity of play in cash games. Here are a Couple of plays I enjoy for Saturday and my fade of the week:
Cash Game play of the week — Kevin Lee ($9,000)
The most important event is nearly always the best fight to get into money games and stacking both fighters out of a 5-round battle usually makes a lot of sense. I believe that you can pile the main event here too, but I think Kevin Lee is the must play of the two. He is a -335 favorite and -135 ITD so if he wins he is going to score highly and based on Vegas he has a 77% chance of winning. In addition, he scored 164 DK points in his last fight so not only does he even have a high ground, but he likely has the maximum ceiling on the card too. That is where I’ll be starting my cash lineup weekly.
GPP drama of this week — Jared Gordon ($8,600)
Following weigh-ins we found a great deal of cash come in on Joaquim Silva and this fight is virtually a PK battle on the betting odds now. Usually when that occurs we see the possession on DraftKings follow suit and the underdog gains ownership because of the value. I think Gordon’s ownership will go down because of this and that is what makes him a fantastic GPP play. Gordon strikes at the highest rate on the card landing 6.68 sig strikes every minute. He also lands 3.41 takedowns per 15-minutes. He does not even require a finish to score 100+ points and that’s why I like him in this place. I am not guaranteeing a win by any means, but if he can win then he should score well.
Underdog play of the week — Mike Rodriguez ($7,500)
Mike Rodriguez is $1,200 less costly than Adam Milstead in this matchup, but he is just +115 compared to Milstead’s -135 betting line. I adore the value we are getting there, and I believe Rodriguez wins this fight. I really do expect him to become one of the very well-known underdogs on the card, but it is chalk I am willing to eat. IF Rodriquez does win then it is likely going to be so not just would he have the win, but he’d score highly too. I believe if he can win this fight then he ends up on the 1st area lineup and he’s my favorite underdog of the week for that reason.
Fade of this week — Drakkar Klose ($9,300)
I’m not fading Klose since I think he loses, I am actually picking him to win a Unanimous Decision here. I am fading him because he’s $9.3k and with his fighting style I do not see him becoming more than 10x that wages. If I am making 20 lineups this weekend Klose will probably be in 0 of these. Klose has 3 UFC wins so much in his career and he’s scored 63, 68, and 74 DK points in these 3 wins. If he scores around that area again in this fight, then that pretty much kills your odds in winning a GPP because the other guys in that $9k stove probably score higher and probably even over 100-points. This makes Klose my fade of this week.
If you’d like my full-card DraftKings breakdown using investigation on each struggle, my personal strategies & recommendations, and my selection outlook for every fight then it is possible to find that beneath the Premium Picks tab on MMAoddsbreaker if you click on Upcoming Picks. Or you can just go to this link below:
(Premium bets are offered at that link as well. I am 47-28 to get +169.81u (+$16,981) since May 19th on Premium Plays. I am also +75.37u the last 7 months!)

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