This weekend we’ve got a 13-fight card then long 3-week break. I am excited to have UFC back and that I am ready to win some money on Saturday. The card will take place in Lincoln, Nebraska and there are no fighters creating their UFC introduction so it’s always nice when you’re already acquainted with all the fighters on the card. Since this is a Fight Night card, the DraftKings contests are not the greatest, but there’s still a great deal of money to be won. I’ll be chasing the big $15k top prize in the $8 GPP in addition to the $5 & $10 Qualifiers. Most of my investment will be in money games, mainly H2Hs, but I’ll be taking multiple shots at these big prizes. Here are a few plays I enjoy this week as well as my fade of this week:
Cash Game play of the week — Stack (James Vick $8,600 AND Justin Gaethje $7,600)
This is how I will be starting my cash lineup. I can put in Vick and Gaethje then figure the rest out from there. Any fight Gaethje is in is filled with action and his three UFC battles have all been Fight Of The Year type conflicts. Those types of fights are great for DraftKings. Notably cash games since we can lock at a win and receive all the points at the very best fight on the card. Normally 4 wins will find the job done in cash games and we’ll get over 100 points on this fight. So, with that triumph locked in, we simply need to find 3 others we feel good about.
GPP play of the week — Bryan Barberena ($9,500)
It is tough to want to pay $9.5k for a man like Barberena when you can just pay an extra $200 to find a -1000 preferred in Anders. But, I think that is what most people will do and that’s what makes Barberena a fantastic GPP play. I think we’ll get him in a marginally lower possession as a consequence of his massive salary, and he has an excellent shot at getting a 1st round triumph. If he can find a 1st round KO then he’ll have at least 100 points so he’ll pay off that high salary. If you believe Ellenberger is completely faded, I believe that you should find some Barberena on your lineups. His ITD line is -170 and Ellenberger resembles he’s a shell of his older self. I believe Barberena does pick up a finish in this fight so that I will throw him in some GPPs and expect he’s under possessed.
Underdog drama of this week — Andre Fili ($7,500)
This is just the easy worth play of this week. Currently, Fili is the betting popular at -115 over Michael Johnson in +105. However, MJ is $8.7k on DraftKings and Fili is just $7.5k. I love taking that worth when it is available so I presume he’s in play in all formats. He’ll be popular in tournaments together with the value we are becoming on him, but I am ready to eat that chalk and I do not want to get burnt by completely fading that value. I do think this is the toughest struggle on the card to phone, but if Fili keeps with his wrestling I presume he will have a fantastic shot at winning this battle. If the fight stays standing for 15-minutes, I would favor MJ but not by a good deal. At $7.5k we don’t require a massive score from Fili so any win will likely do just fine. I am not going to pass up on this respect and I think he’s the simple underdog of this week on DK.
Fade of this week — Drew Dober ($8,900)
This may just be my own personal prejudice but I will not possess Drew Dober in some of my primary ~20 GPP lineups. Nor will I have him in my money lineup. Dober has just went for takedowns in 1 of his UFC fights so he is mainly just seeking to attack. I believe that this is going to be a striking battle also and I think it will be closer than the odds indicate. At $8.9k I think we’ll require a complete from him to wind up on the winning GPP lineup and I don’t see that happening. Should you think Dober can find a KO, then you should be playing him. I’ll only be paying up elsewhere since I am not sure he could get that finish and that I would not be shocked if he even lost the struggle. I will say that I never seem to use Dober in DraftKings, so I could get burned again but I am going to stick with my Dober fade and he will be my fade of the week to get UFC Lincoln.
If you would like my full-card DraftKings breakdown with investigation on each struggle, my private strategies & recommendations, and also my pick outlook for every single fight then you can discover that under the Premium Picks tab on MMAoddsbreaker should you click on Upcoming Picks. Or you can just go to this link below:
https://mmaoddsbreaker.com/mmaob-premium/upcoming-picks
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